Review of 2013, outlook for 2014

Published: December 11, 2013

  Watch Investment Implication video Download PDF copy 2013 – another good year for investors 2013 was notable for what did not happen: the US did not go off the fiscal cliff or default on its debt and the much feared inflation lift off failed to materialise; the euro did not fall apart despite a […]

Read more

A better 2014 for the Aust economy & profits

Published: December 4, 2013

Download PDF copy Ever since major mining investment projects, such as Olympic Dam, started to be cancelled over a year ago and it became clear the mining investment boom was coming to an end, much uncertainty has surrounded the outlook for the Australian economy. This was not helped by a mediocre initial response to interest […]

Read more

Deflation or rising inflation – what is the risk?

Published: November 28, 2013

Download PDF copy Ever since the global economy started to "recover" from the global financial crisis in 2009 a constant concern has been that all the money printing by central banks in the US, Europe and Japan will result in sharply higher inflation in developed countries. This has not happened. In fact over the last […]

Read more

Eugene Fama, Robert Shiller, DAA and me

Published: November 26, 2013

Download PDF copy For twenty five years or so my core focus at work has been on the allocation of assets – shares, bonds, property, cash, Australian, global, etc – across multi asset portfolios. Some might say that’s a job that naturally flows from being an economist with a macro (ie big picture) focus. But […]

Read more

China on track

Published: November 13, 2013

Download PDF copy It seems that every 6 -12 months the China perma bears roll out their worries again. At the core of such concerns are a bunch of structural issues: that China’s investment driven growth model is unsustainable, that its housing sector is overheated, that it has lost competitiveness and most significantly that it […]

Read more

The search for yield and return – has it gone too far or is there more to go?

Published: November 6, 2013

Download PDF The collapse in short term interest rates and associated fall in long term bond yields has seen investors seek out decent investment yield in assets as diverse as corporate debt, property, infrastructure and shares. And more recently this has broadened into a general search for higher returns as confidence in the economic outlook […]

Read more

Light at the end of the tunnel for Australian retail sales

Published: October 24, 2013

Download PDF Four years of poor retail sales When looking for growth in non-mining investments to fill the gap left by the mining investment boom, retail sales are critically important accounting for nearly 20% of economic activity in Australia. As is well known Australian retailers have had it tough for nearly four years now. Nominal […]

Read more